Since the release of an eWedNews Story titled Inaccurate, misused and sometimes abused information hurting businesses. eWN readers say they are becoming more aware and cognizant of information that could prove to be harmful to their businesses. The story seems to have struck a nerve with some that say the number spinning to sell products or advertising is simply wrong and becoming a relic from a different age.
In the story Destination I Do Magazine claimed that 18% of the 2,271,910 American weddings were destination based. The information was questioned and attempts to find out how the organization arrived at those numbers remain ignored. Readers picking up on the story told eWN,” The written word is indisputable unless someone questions the information and content. You question the information content.”
Another eWN supporter forwarded the following information they thought could be potentiall damaging. In an article titled JCK Las Vegas: Concentrate on Bridal Jewelry, its author, Kenneth Gassman foresees a very positive time ahead for the wedding business. In his assessment of the wedding business, Gassman claims”…the recession has not affected the number of marriages in the United States." He predicted bridal demand would grow dramatically (15%) and cited an estimate of 2.6 million marriages a year in the future.
A happy Ken Gassman predicts a 15% rise in weddings over the next several years.
eWedNews asked Gassman how he arrived at the figure and in an eWN exclusive said, “Our 2.6 million forecast is for 2016 (or so), up from the current level of 2.2 million or so today (all annual rates). The forecast is not based on "rocket science," but rather simple demographics and mathematical analysis. If you take births by year, combine them with the average age at marriage (men & women marry at slightly different ages, and it changes only SLIGHTLY each year, despite what the mass media claims), factor in subsequent marriages (second, third, etc), and then factor in deaths (we call it "hatched, matched, and detached"), it is very simple to come up with the 2.6 million number. No mystery. No voodoo; Just solid statistical analysis.
Our sources include the Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics, The Knot, and other sources. Based on the info I've given you, I'm guessing you can come up with the formula, and that will help you understand the basis of our forecast. We also watch other factors -- number of couples co-hebetating without the benefit of marriage, divorce rate, etc -- though they don't change much on an annual basis. They do change decade-to-decade. We are also wondering if there will be some pent-up demand for diamond engagement rings (DER), once it is clear that the recession is over. The average price for a DER declined by slightly over 10% during the recession, and many of those women are likely to want that larger diamond that they've had their eye on since grade school.
As a researcher, we don't have a dog in this fight (as we Southerners say). If you have a statistical data base that would help us refine our forecasts, we'll be glad to take a look at the data,” according to his response.
The eloquent, timely and sensible reply was disputed by wedding expert, Shane McMurray of WE TV Network’s Wedding Report. McMurray told eWN, “We will be lucky to get back to 2.2 mil weddings by 2015. 2.6? No way. Perhaps Gassman should read a little at the site he publishes his own data.. This article proves that my numbers are spot on. For engagement rings see bullet point 4; average ring price $3,100 "The average ticket for all diamond engagement rings is about $3,100." my data says 2009 - $3,186, 2010 est. - $3,258,” says McMurray. In an extended statement, McMurray dismisses we will reach 2.6 million weddings anytime soon. “Given the current outlook on people’s view of marriage, the numbers will continue to bounce, even though favorable demographics of people entering the age for marriages grows,” according to McMurray.
In the interview, McMurray cited the idea of a boom in weddings that has been forecast for nearly a decade by some major industry sources, including Conde Nast, has never occurred. In fact, McMurray's current analysis suggests continued movement in the opposite direction. “If it was going to happen, it would have by now or at least we'd be seeing signs of it happening,” says McMurray.
McMurray is actively involved in several key projects for the wedding industry and is rallying some major sources that are combining to raise the level and standards of information. McMurray has taken some major information sources to task including The Knot.
eWedNews
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2010
Posted on 06/10/2010
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